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Originally Posted by lemoncrush
If Midnight Lute is ready to run, the race is over. That is, assuming he points to the sprint instead of the dirt mile.
I haven't heard much about Diabolical lately. Does he have a prep coming up?
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I was looking at the Sprint a few days ago and I'm not so sure I'd bet anything short in the race, especially coming out of Belmont prep. The last chalk to win the Sprint was Otirntate (AP '02), other winning favorites were Kona Gold (CD '00), Lit de Justice (Woodbine '96), Cherokee Run (CD '94), and Ellio (Hwd '84). Artax won as a co-favorite. In 12 of 24 runnings of the Sprint, the winner has paid over $20; 8 of those paid over $30.
Gulch, Safely Kept, Dancing Spree, Cherokee Run, Artax, Squittle Squirt, Orientate, Speightstown and Silver Train won the BCSprint off a race in NY.
But, only Artax, Orientate and Silver Train won their NY prep. Artax won the Vosburgh then paid $9.40 in the BCS. Orientate won the Forego at Saratoga in his prior start and then paid $7.40 in the BCS. Silver Train won either an Allowance or Listed at Belmont in his prior start and paid $23 and change.
I think betting a horse off a winning NY G 1 prep is a losing deal.
It was interesting to see how horses prepping at lesser tracks did in the Bc Sprint.
Turfway:
1992: The first BC Sprint horse to prep at Turfway was Meafara in 1992. She ran 2nd in the BCS at 14-1.
1994, Chimes Band ran 5th at 20-1.
1995, Mr Greely missed a neck, running 2nd at 33-1.
1996, CApote Belle and Appealing Skier both ran out at fairly short odds.
1998, Reraise won at 7/2
1999, Successful Appeal ran 5th at long odds
2000 Caller One ran 4th at 4-1
2003, Cajun Beat won the BCS at 23-1. Private Horde ran out at a long number.
Summary of BCS starters prepping at Turfway:
Starters: 9
Wins: 2 (7/2 and 23-1)
2nds: 2 (14-1 and 33-1)
Four of the races have been won by horses prepping at Meadowlands (Ellio $4.60), Philly PArk (Smile $24.00), Arlington (Very Subtle $35) and in France (Sheik Albadou ($54).
11 horses have started off preps in France. Sheik Albadou won at 26-1 and another (Dayjuir at 2-1) ran 2nd but was probably best.
Seven horses have run in the BCS Sprint off prep races at Philadelphia Park.
Of those, Smile won at 11-1 and Thunderello ran 2nd at 48-1, and had the lead until the last few strides.
Eight horses have prepped for the BCS at Woodbine. Only one of those horses went off at less than 30-1. Three of those eight ran second in the BCSprint, missing by a nose, 3/4 and 3/4.
Eight horses won the BCS off a California prep, of those, Kona Gold ($5.40 in the BCS), Elmhurst ($35 in the BCS, his only G1 win), Cardmainia ($12.60 in the BCS, his only G 1 win) and Thirty Slews ($38 in the BCS, his only G 1 win) won their Californian preps.
Horses prepping at Belmont have been favored in 12 of 22 BCS races there has been a Belmont prepped horse entered. Two of those have won. Cherokee Run paid $7.60 and Artax (co-favorite) at 7/2.
The BC Spring charts are loaded with short-priced Belmont-prepped horses failing as favorites including the Pancho Villa/Mt Livermore entry, Birdonthewire, Not Surprising and Richter Scale (a co-favorite) at 3-1, Affirmed Success at 5/2, Rubiano at 2-1, Mining and Henny Hughes at 8/5, Groovy at 4/5 and Housebuster at 2/5.
Three BC Sprint favorites prepped at Saratoga. Orientate won and paid $7.60. Aldebaran ran out as did Midas Eyes.
Finally, one horse, Sewickely, prepped at Aqueduct and ran out while favored in the BCS Sprint off short rest.
Total BCS favorites winning off NY preps = 3
Total BCS favorites coming off NY preps = 16
I'm sure I could be off a bit as some of my notes are old and nearly illegible, but I would not take a short number on any horse in the BCS, especially coming off a NY Graded win.
good luck.