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Originally Posted by ArlJim78
This is an update on a post I made last night. I had stated that using the Bris pace and speed analysis it is easy to see the actual facts about LITF’s performances. I contacted the people at Bris and they were kind enough to give me the numbers for LITF in the Smile, so it helps to complete the picture.
The line consists of four numbers defined below:
E1-pace figure to the quarter
E2-pace figure to the half
LP-pace figure from the half to the end
SPD-final speed figure
This is a composite or average of all of LITF’s races. It shows his typical pace distribution early and late and total.
E1 E2 LP SPD
95 107 92 102
Here are the lines from his last five races.
E1 E2 LP SPD Finish race
93 111 79 95 eighth Smile sprint
88 103 102 107 first Aristides
101 110 81 96 second Golden Gate sprint (four horse field)
100 115 82 100 seventh BC - Sprint
94 103 105 109 first Bay Meadows Speed – five horse field
Notice that when he runs an E2 pace figure that is higher than his average, his late pace and final time suffer. Not coincidentally these all occurred in big G1 events or when there is a horse that is faster to the half than he is which is the case in the Golden Gate sprint (Carthage).
In the other races notice that his E1 and E2 pace were well within his target range and he was therefore able to come home strong and win. It is a textbook case of a horse being overmatched. His numbers in the Smile are remarkably similar to the BC sprint. If anything they were just slightly worse.
So Rupert this is why I claim that he IS consistent because when he has things his way you can pretty much predict the outcome and also when he is facing faster horses you can also predict the outcome because his three loses have remarkably similar late pace numbers. They weren't horrible but you can definetely see where he has maxed out.
For the record I’m not a shill for Bris but it is something that I use and find invaluable in deciphering the actual shape of the race.
I have offered what I think is a solid, logical argument to explain his performances. On the other hand people come back with such statements as “he didn’t fire”, “he didn’t try”, “he is not himself”, “he is sore”, “he is tired”. I have to tell you I think the guy is firing and is trying; he’s running his balls off. He is just in too deep.
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I know nothing about Bris pace figures, but are you going to tell me that they are extremely reliable? Do you make money bettting the horses overall by using those figures? Do you usually show a profit at the end of the year by relying on those pace figures? If those figures are so reliable, then how many winning years in a row have you had betting the horses?
Do you understand my point? Here is an anology. Let's say that a guy likes to bet football and he loves the Jets this weekend. The Jets lose. He also loves the Rams this weekend. The Rams lose. The third game he loves is the Eagles. The Eagles win, so he won 1 out of 3 games. He says after the game, "I knew the Eagles would win." In reality he didn't know the Eagles would win. He may have thought they would win but he also thought the Jets and Rams would win. If he's not a winning player overall, then I think it's silly for him to say I knew this team would win for these reasons. He didn't know the team would win. He was just as positive that the Rams would win and he was totally wrong. I think the same could be said about those pace figures. The figures said that LITF would lose those races and he lost. That doesn't prove those figures are reliable any more so than the Eagles winning proves that my football guy is reliable at picking winners.
If you make a profit every year betting the horses by using those Bris figures, then they are probably pretty reliable. If not, then they are like anything else that works once in a while. A guy can say that he knew such and such a horse would win because the horse had the highest Beyer number. What about the other 8 races where the horse with the highest Beyer number lost.