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Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite
Hmmm ... yes, I said "hmmm" ... then ...
... then how come 90% of all the high-priced yearlings that these "astute" horsemen recommend ... turn out to be garbage?
Once again ... I say, "hmmmm .... "
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First of all, I was not talking about yearling sales. I was talking about 2 year old in training sales. At 2 year old in training sales, you get to watch a horse work out. At yearling sales, you don't. I personally have no expertise at picking out yearlings. But there are some people who are really good at it. With yearlings though, there really is no such thing as a horse who is a slam dunk to be a good horse. Even the guys who are great at picking out yearlings will have a relatively low batting average. If 20-25% of the horses you picked turned out turned out to be good enough horses to break their maidens within their first couple of races at major tracks, that would be a very good batting average for yearlings. With 2 year olds in training, a person with a good eye, could do much better than this. You could expect more like 60-70% of the horses you pick to win early at major tracks. The number will obviously be much lower for horses who don't have much speed and look like they want to run long.
To clarify your question about a horse's stride, there are all different types of strides. Just because a horse has a short stride, it doesn't mean that his stride is bad. By the same token, just because a horse has a long stride, that doesn't mean his stride is good. As long as the stride is fluid and smooth, that is the most important thing.