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Originally Posted by Miller
Bogey,
Again I am following your bets closely as you provide a far better approach to the total handicapping experience than most. I am not slamming others who provide picks on this board but unless one has a huge bankroll, following their suggestions would wipe a person out unless a major score is hit quickly.
I realize that picking on a board such as this does not guarantee that the handicapper will bet according to the posted picks as many things can happen between the pick and the running of the race.
As an example your suggestion to bet Little Cliff based on all the early speed may have changed as much of that speed scratched.
However, back to my reason for picking your brain. Do you have a specific amount that you will bet in a situation. For example was 50 units on Little Cliff a decision based on feeling or design. In the same way the 20 cold exacta and a 10 unit box for your two other wagers.
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Miller, thanks again for the kind words.
You are exactly correct on the example of Little Cliff. Due to unforeseen circumstances of some of the speed horses being scratched, Little Cliff offered very little value, especially at even money. I was unable to update the post, but there are some well informed horseplayers on Derbytrail that can read between the lines. IMO Little Cliff at 3-1 or so offered good value because I expected the race to fall apart. I guess it would be by design instead of feel in that situation.
The reason I went with the 20 units Cold Exacta was because IMO #2 Fleet Indian was practically unbeatable in the Delaware Handicap. Unless you can afford to wager $2K or so, the best and only way to play the race was to find the 2nd place horse.
When I handicap races, I don't look at the morning line. I came to the conclusion that the 3 horses in Race 8 at CD would be in the neighborhood of 7-1 or so. Of course, I figured they were all well meant and boxing the 3 would be profitable no matter what combo would come out. In this situation I went on feel.
The most difficult element in handicapping the day before or early morning is scratches and weather. Both can change a race dramatically.
Hope that answers your questions.
Good Racing Luck