[ArlJim78]

RP “You statement that "he fires in every race that fits the pace description and competition level that I previously gave and he mis-fires every time he is in against tough horses" is totally untrue. He's gone :43 1/5 and won by 10 lengths. “

That was at Golden Gate and it was a three horse field!!!! You should pay less attention to times and more to pace figures, the quality of the competition, and the way the horse ran, how many obstacles did he overcome, how hard was he asked, etc.

RP “The only race he lost last year was the BC Sprint. That was one race. That is hardly proof of anything. A more obvious reason for his poor performance was because he had one too many trips across the country and one too many hard races. “

Is it really more likely that it was due to the travel? Take a look at the following. I alluded to his performances being predictable with the Bris pace and speed figures.
Below I am using Bris terms E1-pace figure to the quarter, E2-pace figure to the half, LP-pace figure from the half to the end, SPD-final speed figure. Here is the average pace profile for LITF. This is an average of all his races.
E1 E2 LP SPD
95 107 92 102

Now here are the figures he ran in his last four races prior to the Smile

Aristides - finished first
E1 E2 LP SPD
88 103 102 107

Golden Gate sprint - finished second in four horse field. Only one real competitor.
E1 E2 LP SPD
101 110 81 96

BC - Sprint - finished seventh
E1 E2 LP SPD
100 115 82 100

Bay Meadows Speed – finished first in a five horse field
E1 E2 LP SPD
94 103 105 109

You say he didn’t fire in the races that he lost. I am saying that he most definitely did fire and he actually ran faster initial pace figures than he normally does to the quarter and the half. In fact they were too fast for him to sustain and his late pace suffered as well as his speed. Those races caused him to work harder early than he did when he went 43 and change against two horses at GG. I don’t know the numbers for the Smile yet but I’m sure that they were huge for E1 and E2. LITF looks to have run his worst race to date but I will also say that I think it was the most challenging field he’s faced in terms of front end speed.

Maybe it’s you who needs to learn a bit more on evaluating horses when they race against weak fields. I was the one who wasn’t fooled by his wins over weak fields. Frankly this is so obvious I’m surprised that it is taking people so long to catch on.