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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Hard Spun's had four siblings - and all of them looked a little better on dirt.
Do you people realize that the Breeders Cup Classic is being run at Monmouth Park this year?
If it was run at most any other track - I think a rational case could probably be made for opting for another spot.
Cable Boy, Stormello, and Flying First Class are speed sprinters - I don't think they will be there to harass Hard Spun again...and make him rate - and no good horse looks any more uncomfortable rating than Hard Spun does.
He'll be vulnerable in the polytrack race at TP off his quick early - moderate late race on the sharp cut-back in the King's Bishop. I hope he runs VERY dismally in the TP race - and is "inexplicably" wheeled back to run in the Classic.
I'd love to get a big number on him come race day....and the worse he runs at TP - the less respect he gets from other riders in the race - the more likely he will be unpressured. And, as expectations lower, the more likely he is to finally be ridden correctly and with the proper tactics - and that is by gunning him to the lead (like in the Derby) and hoping the Monmouth Park track is as kind to one-dimensional speed as it was for the vast majority of the summer.
A real good performance by Hard Spun at TP - especially if it comes without being sent - is the absolute most discouraging thing someone who's intruged by him as a Breeders Cup Classic prospect would want to see.
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I will bet you that Monmouth will do everything possible to ensure the track is NOT speed favoring on BC day's 1 and 2. Dont you think that they recall the fallout from the perceived rail bias last year? Dont you think that every article written about Monmouth talks about the "speed favoring" track isn't read by Kulina and company? Don't you think that they don't want a parade of wire to wire winners which may hamper their efforts to get the Cup in the future? Isn't it possible that the track may play different in the late fall than it does in the summer?