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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
If what you are saying is true, then LITF must be one of the best horses off all time. Look at all the other sprinters out there. Look at how spotty their record are. They have run several good races and several bad races. Some days they fire and some day they don't. But according to you, LITF is different. He fires every single time. He always runs the same. The only reason that he doesn't always finish in the same position is because sometimes he runs in tougher spots. The only reason he got beat on Saturday and in the BC Sprint was because those races were tough and there was too much speed but he actually ran his best on those days. If that's the case, then LITF must be one of the greatest horses ever. He ships all over the place, he runs a lot, and he almost always runs in graded stakes races, but most importantly he fires every time. He always runs his best. That's pretty amazing. He must be one of the greatest horses ever then. If you are correct then LITF is the only horse I know of that fires every time.
What you're saying is obviously absurd. No horse runs the same every time, not even LITF. All of these horses have physical problems and based on the way they are feeling, somedays they fire and other days they don't. They don't run their best every time. I know you think that LITF is a machine and runs his best every time but you are wrong.
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You can make light of my comments calling them absurd, however I feel if you would open your mind a bit you might get it. I think I am more aware that he is not a machine than you are since you keep referring to whether he fired or not. He is a horse not a spark plug so I find this a very unsatisfying response. Instead of just trying to explain away his losses as misfires I have taken the time to look closer and have found factors that I feel are entirely consistent.
I will agree that overall LITF has run very consistently and no that doesn't make him the greatest horse of all time. It just means that he has been well taken care of and spotted well. Many times sprinters when they are off their game run way out, like 15 lenghts or more. LITF has not had races like that and overall he's been pretty consisent. His worst efforts are when he has to face one or more horses that can run a very fast pace to the quarter. I saw in another post of yours you stated that LITF has as much early speed as any horse in the country. Therein lies your mistake because that is far from true. If and when he tries to match the fastest horses for early speed he will not finish well.
How is it that he fires in every race that fits the pace description and competition level that I previously gave and he mis-fires every time he is in against tough horses? You say he is sore and has physical problems. I don't know if that's true and I don't think you know that for a fact either. I would just point out that if he had many physical problems on Saturday I think he would have finished much worse than he did. I really can't assess that race in full until I see the pace numbers. It's very possible that it was a sub par effort for him and maybe a physical issue contributed to it or it could be just what happens when a horse is over matched, they do not have a peak performance because everything doesn't set up in an optimal way for them. My main point is that even in peak condition he does not win that race. This isn't the first time that a horse dominates his age group but then shows to be much more up against it versus open company. He's not an off the pace type and yet he can't wire a top field like he faced Saturday.