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Originally Posted by NTamm1215
Be careful with that Porto Santo analogy. He had absolutely no place to run in the Del Mar Mile and the decision with CTL would have probably been much, much closer had Nakatani not been completely stymied for over a furlong.
Also, just my opinion, the way you broke down your analysis is nice, but comparing finishing positions in races that were five months apart is a very dangerous idea. I think you missed Andy's point, which was that level of competition has to be taken into consideration, but I missed where he said that margin of victory is the deciding factor.
NT
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I don't think margin of victory is really that relevant of a factor at all. I only brought that up because he used how they finished againt Becrux as the first argument of comparison. I agree that level of competition is one of the biggest factors so in that regard, using Porto Santo is not much different than using Becrux.
In that Del Mar race, I just watched it again and I don't see where Porto Santo's trip was so bad. The rider was riding throughout the stretch. I think had CTL had a better trip and not had to switch from the inside to the far outside in the stretch, he could have won by even more.
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