Manduro being out takes quite a gloss out of this race. I know a lot can change between now and October, but the ground was very fast in Paris yesterday, and that is almost unheard of. Most of western Europe has had next to no rain in the last month (what a change from the "summer")
It's quites possible that this year's Arc could be run on good or faster ground. If it is, Dylan Thomas will take a huge amount of beating.
He would still be my pick at the moment...... but it will probably change at least once before the big day
