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Originally Posted by King Glorious
I'll tell u what I think and I'll wait for u to jump all over it but I think part of it is the effort it takes to win the race vs. being an also ran in the race. Take for example the Arc de Triomphe. Most people would be surprised to learn that no Arc winner has ever come over and won the BC Turf. Realizing that only four have tried it (Dancing Brave, Trempolino, Saumarez and Subotica) but it's still never been done. I believe that had one or more of those four won it, trainers wouldn't have stopped even trying. At the same time that they aren't able to complete the double, there have been several Arc also rans (High Chaparral twice, Daylami, In the Wings, Pilsudski, Shirocco) that have found Turf success. Why is that? I believe that the effort it takes to win some of these grueling test like the Arc and the Belmont, coming at the end of campaigns, takes a huge toll and leave horses more vulnerable to injuries.
U may say that the horses coming out of the Belmont may only need a rest. U are probably right. U've probably forgotten more about horse racing than I'll ever learn. But what I do know is that in the past seven years, we've gotten a combined total of six races and three wins post Belmont from the seven winners of the race in the remainder of their 3yo seasons. That's just not good. If it's not the Belmont, something is obviously going wrong these days.
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well, you have bad belmont winners such as jazil, you have horses such as birdstone who go on to win other big races, and retire to make more money in the shed. you have afleet alex, who just wasn't given the time to race again--his injury was relatively minor, but they tried to rush him back too soon. smarty wasn't injured in the belmont, his issues were described as chronic, and once again the shed beckoned. more to it then just to say this horse did this, and never ran again.
why didn't he run again? or why didn't he win again? maybe a bad winner who lucked out by not having the top 3 yo's run?
also, you need to consider a horse past three (IF he makes it that far). there are plenty of reasons why a horse may need an extended break, whether from a grueling spring, or from any number of issues. citation missed his entire four year old season for example. seattle slew didn't run again after his dismal swaps stakes. i doubt the belmont was the cause, but due to the combined efforts of his spring campaign.