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Originally Posted by ArlJim78
It sure is hard. If you tell people he is over-rated you get accused of bashing the horse when all you're trying to do is explain reality. And that is that LITF is way over-rated. He continues to go off at ridiculously low odds compared to his chances of winning. Before the Breeders Cup I studied all his replays and I noticed one thing they had in common, he was able to comfortably dictate the pace and did not have any credible threats. His problem is that in open company against top sprinters he cannot get the lead, which is why I knew he was doomed on Saturday. Horses like Joey P, Gold Storm, etc, have real high speeds to the 1/4 and 1/2, there is no way LITF can run out on that pace and win. Also he does not seem to have a closing kick dimension to him like Nightmare Affair. LITF has a very limited kick. He simply has no answer for top sprinters. He can cruise at a pretty high rate of speed but thats not going to get the job done against top sprinters who usually have to have a sustained accelaration burst at some point in the race.
I think that people that use Bris pace and speed numbers maybe have an advantage in picking this up. Before Saturday there were two times that LITF ran very fast pace numbers to the 1/4 and both of those times he paid for it in the late pace ending up flat, the BC Sprint and his first race of this year against Carthage. In the Aristides he was able to run a 1/4 pace that was comfortable and the result was about as good as it gets for him. In the opening part of the Smile LITF got out of the gate preety good and for a short time he was in the mix. But then the real speedballs kicked it in and I believe Baze knew he had to take back a little. He tried to make a run going into the turn but that's not his game.
There a mass hysteria with this horse and people keep citing his record, 11 wins in 14 starts, several G1's , blah, blah, blah. Ok that was a great 3YO season against a suspect group, but where does that put him now. Forget about the past, he is 1 win in four starts against real competition. They will have to pick their spots for him if they keep racing him, he can win lesser sprints from time to time. However I think they know he does not belong on the path to the BC sprint. With all that said I believe, like others have suggested, that rather than further diminish his reputation that he will be retired.
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If what you are saying is true, then LITF must be one of the best horses off all time. Look at all the other sprinters out there. Look at how spotty their record are. They have run several good races and several bad races. Some days they fire and some day they don't. But according to you, LITF is different. He fires every single time. He always runs the same. The only reason that he doesn't always finish in the same position is because sometimes he runs in tougher spots. The only reason he got beat on Saturday and in the BC Sprint was because those races were tough and there was too much speed but he actually ran his best on those days. If that's the case, then LITF must be one of the greatest horses ever. He ships all over the place, he runs a lot, and he almost always runs in graded stakes races, but most importantly he fires every time. He always runs his best. That's pretty amazing. He must be one of the greatest horses ever then. If you are correct then LITF is the only horse I know of that fires every time.
What you're saying is obviously absurd. No horse runs the same every time, not even LITF. All of these horses have physical problems and based on the way they are feeling, somedays they fire and other days they don't. They don't run their best every time. I know you think that LITF is a machine and runs his best every time but you are wrong.