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Originally Posted by Gander
33% off a layoff is a very misleading stat. How many of those horses have been laid off 1.5 years and havent run as an older horse? Against a field with 2 horses who have races that are consistently better than the horse who is making the start off the layoff?
Not saying its impossible but certainly nowhere near the odds that you'll have to swallow. The more I look at this race the more I like Yeshesapistol at what figures to be the only "bettable odds". Areyoutalkingtome looms huge in here but hard to take at around 8/5.
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You are right that the 33% stat is misleading. If all of Ellis's horses were as good as DM, the stat would be more like 60%. Many of his horses coming off layoffs are not great horses.