Quote:
|
Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance
I'm still not convinced about him getting the trip on what will most likely be soft ground on Arc day. Infact, i would say that as each day passes i am becoming less and less confident about him staying 12 furlongs.
I know he has a relaxed style of racing, and that will certainly help him, but he will be up against proven 12 furlong horses that have the ability to stay even further than this trip. Manduro (on form) is the one they have to beat and they know there is a doubt about him staying. They aren't going to make this a walk in the park for him. The others will make it a proper stamina test from start to finish, and i think that might prove too much for him.
He is still the best turf performer in the world at the moment, in my opinion but i doubt if he will be the best turf performer in the world at 12 furlongs.
If the ground is soft, any number of horses will have chances, but if it is Good on the day and Dylan Thomas is a confirmed runner, i think he will take plenty of beating.
|
I suppose when we talk about a race like this, this early, its very difficult to judge what the ground will be like. If it is soft, Id be wary of backing Manduro, because A), he isnt as good on it IMO and B) it'll make the trip that bit longer!. However, if it is good, I see no reason that Dylan Thomas would automatically reverse Ascot form with him, as long as Manduro is ridden positively...
Fabre is an absolute master at getting his horses spot on for the Arc. He knows what type of horse it takes and I believe him when he says that hes finally figured out how to train this guy. The one Id be wary of is Zambezi Sun. He's unbeaten at Longchamp, by the same connections who won last years Arc and is the same essential type as Rail Link. The Niel will tell us much much more about him.
O'Brien has the usual strong guns to fire for the Arc but Im still to be absolutely convinced by Soldier Of Fortune and Dylan might find one or two too good for him. He couldnt win it with a superstar in High Chaparral (though there were thoughts that he didnt race as well right handed!) so I dont think he'll win this year!