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Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV
he would of won at 10f Saturday on that track against the same field.
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You are PROBABLY right about this, but there is no way anybody can know that for sure. If the race was run at 10f, a lot of things MIGHT have been different. The pace might have been different, horses could have made moves at different timess, jocks might have used different strategies etc.
Winning in impressive fashion at 9f simply does not mean that a horse will be effective at 10f.
I stand by my statement that I don't
think Lawyer Ron will be a paricularly effective horse at 10f.
Here are the three main reasons why:
1) He ran rather poorly in his two previous attempts at 10f. I know people will say that he is "a completely different horse now" and things like that, but the fact remains that his best efforts at both ages 3 and 4 have come in the 8.5 - 9f range.
2) His pedigree. He just doesn't have a good 10f pedigree. Langfuhr was a good racehorse, but he did his best work in the 7f-8f range, as have most of his offspring. Being out of a Lord Avie mare doesn't scream 10f either. In the 2006 Derby, he had - in my opinion - the worst 10f pedigree of any horse in the race.
3) It seems to me that he reaches the bottom of the tank every time in these 9f races. This (of course) is an impossible thing to know for sure, and even if true, doesn't
have to mean that he can't get 10f effectively, but when combined with the first two reasons I mentioned lead me to my conclusion.
Could I be wrong? Sure. The other thing to remember is that with the weakness of the handicap division this year, I could be right and he could still win a G1-10f race if they decide to go that way.
But with a 1m70yd BC race this year, I think they would be best served to point in that direction and keep the horse in the 8f - 9f range. By the way, I am not knocking the horse. There is absolutely NOTHING wrong with being a G1 caliber horse in that 8f-9f range.