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Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers
Nafzger is at his best when he sets a goal for his horse and points to a specific race and trains up to it, see BC Juvenille 2006 and KY Derby 2007. He laid out pinpoint plans to get the horse there and have him ready to win. He won both.
He freely admitted he had no real plan after the Derby. No surprise that SS got nosed out. The question is, what is the long term goal of Nafzger for SS? Is it the Travers or the BC Classic. I argue that it is both. Old school guys like Nafzger view the Travers as the fourth jewel in the Triple Crown. He said leading up to the Jim Dandy, he didnt care if SS lost, he just needed to get sharper off the long lay off. It wasn't overly impressive, but the horse did what was necessary to win the race, which in the end, that was all the trainer was looking for.
Next stop will be the Travers, maybe a race vs olders in late Sept/early Oct and then train up to the BC Classic. With Nafzger's precise schedule and track record for having his horses ready for the spot that is the ultimate destination (Derby, BC Juvy) combined with the fact that SS is bound to improve off the Dandy, even more so third off the layoff (like the Derby) in a prep for the BCC or the BCC itself, along with a natural maturing horse late in a three year old campaign, I'm not sure how you can be overly disappointed in SS's performance in the Dandy.
Crushing fields did nothing to help Bernardini in the BCC last year, he got a look in the eye and spit the bit. Street Sense will go into the BCC well tested and well prepared.
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you are right on about Nafzger and how he maps out a plan to have the horse peak on the big days. Also you have listed two very big days that SS has delivered on already, the BCJ and the Derby. I look at it this way, what else is there to prove with the horse? does he really need the classic to prove he is an elite horse? no. But the rest of the field in the classic will.
I'm not convinced about how much more improvement we're going to see from him. He is the first horse to carry over his winning form from the juvenile to the derby. What a huge step it would be to keep it going through the fall and win the classic. Totally unprecedented. When you talk about a naturally improving 3yo I think more about a horse that is only now coming into his peak form, for the first time. Not about a horse who at two ran the fastest juvenile ever.
we'll see how it turns out, count me as skeptical of him reaching new heights.
I disagree about Bernardini last year. No shame in how he ran in the classic, I wouldn't call it spitting the bit. He lost to an extraordinary horse, a better horse, but his race in the classic was exceptional.