I don't like his chances here much at all. He will probably be bet down from 20/1 for the reasons you mention, but I believe he is a step below some of those in here.
In his last race he barely beat a mediocre Student Council and he was actually getting 4 lbs from Student Council that day. His race was also not particularly fast (despite the NTR), as can be readily seen by the fact that he barely beat those allowance horses, and received only a 98 BSF for the race.
Even in his prime in the winter of '06 he never beat anybody particularly noteworthy or posted a BSF as high as those run in the past by Papi Chullo, Fairbanks, Wanderin Boy, Sun King, or Magna Graduate.
There aren't any GREAT horses in this race....but I think most of them are better than Brass Hat. I wouldn't play him.
|