It is less than 50-50, but that is also a little misleading. His point was that the horse was that if the horse was 50-50 when all was going well, he is obviously less than 50-50 now.

The newspapers and ESPN are also a little behind, going more on yesterdays news than todays.

The bloodhorse and thoroughbredtimes are really the only ones that follow it hour by hour
http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=34371

The archive is here
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/BarbaroArchive.asp