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Originally Posted by paisjpq
I'm not knocking his ability, quite the opposite. But the breeders' cup (and lets face it unless he performs well there he can forget HOY) isn't in California, and the trainer admits the horse does not ship well, and cannot settle outside of his familiar environment...that is a serious problem because it makes it very difficult to showcase his talent and ability. And california tracks are different than east coast tracks so there will always be individauls who will call him a specialist...not that he is or isn't. If he traveled well then he could answer that question--that is all I am trying to say.
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Paisjpq, I might agree with you except for the fact that Lava Man has done so well on the grass. You can hardly call a horse a one-track specialist if he is dominating over two totally different surfaces. Moving back and forth between dirt and grass is way more different than moving between different dirts. IMO, Lava Man has already passed all the versatility questions. Shipping successfully isn't nearly as impressive as winning Grade I's on both dirt and grass.
I'm not even sure Lava Man has to go to the BCC to win HOY. They could take the Mineshaft route and bypass it entirely. (they could find SOMETHING that needs a couple of months of rest to heal.) If Lava Man adds the Pacific Classic to his undefeated year and then goes to the sidelines, it would not be easy for another horse to win HOY. I can't imagine any horse besides Bernardini, Flower Alley, Invasor and perhaps Jazil having a shot. And for any of those horses to have a chance, he would have to win everything from here out including the BCC.
--Dunbar