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Originally Posted by ateamstupid
As will I (be succinct)..
I made the point that I don't believe Commentator can keep up with Henny Hughes, Anew, Too Much Bling, Lost in the Fog, etc. at six furlongs.
Your response, essentially was:
"Well, out of those four, probably only Lost in the Fog will take more money!"
Kudos.
Your point is ridiculous. Using your logic, I can pick out any race I want at any track in America and say, because Horse X is the second choice in a race, that this horse has the second best chance to win said race.
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Oh boy!
Yes " I can pick out any race I want at any track in America and say, because Horse X is the second choice in a race, that this horse has the second best chance to win said race " this is not only true according to my " logic " but it is true statistically and would be proven just that over time. In fact, believe it or not, this is the entire point. This is a mathematical concept and NOT a handicapping one and I have NEVER claimed it was anything else. YOU may be insinuating I have but I think if you really reread the chain of events in this thread, you will see that is not the case.
I understand full well that there will be many races where you or I will NOT think the second choice is the second likeliest winner ( and believe it or not, in a true mathematical universe, we will also probably be right in this assumption on occasion ). That, however, is not, nor was it ever, the point I was making.
Honestly, I think you, Byk and I could probably hash this out over a drink sometime this summer. Byk can bring along his abacus in a desperate attempt to keep up.