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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
First of all, if the Commentator of last year was lining up against the four horses you just named the only one who MIGHT be a shorter price is Lost in the Fog. I suggest you take a serious look at his pps as from what you are posting it doesn't feel like you have really looked at them.
He didn't run in the BC Sprint in 2004 because he had just started racing and he didn't race in it last year because he was hurt. They do not " keep trying to stretch him out ". They stretched him out for the Donn for the first time and he subsequently came up with an injury. When Nick asked me my opinion about whether or not he should run him in the Whitney last year ( I only mention this because he thanked me in the winner's circle after the race both to the press and ESPN ) I pointed out that they didn't know if he could stretch effectively because it wasn't clear if he was injured in the Donn and he didn't exactly embarrass himself that day in light of the lightning fast pace he set. Therefore, it seemed like as good a time as any to find out, especially because there was really only one genuinely good horse to beat.
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Pretty funny that you say that, because I've had his past performances open in Acrobat since last night and have been glancing at them a lot the last 12 hours.
What I see is a horse who's never been shorter than seven furlongs and has only run one race (The N3X win last year) that suggests he's got six-furlong speed. I see a horse who has started the year sprinting twice, and stretched out to nine furlongs both times. I see a horse who has never passed another horse in any of his wins and would UNDOUBTEDLY need to do that to win the Sprint.
Your point about LITF being the only one potentially shorter priced seems pretty irrelevant. So because people would bet on him (mostly just because he has high figures), that means he'd have a shot in the BC Sprint?