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Originally Posted by ELA
Chuck, don't get me wrong -- the colt isn't a nobody. However, I just don't think he was that good of a colt. The talk about him being at or very near the head of the class, early on, seemed to be a bit of overhype to me. G1's without question cannot be dismissed.
Winning the Travers, to me is a huge "if" and although it may be rhetorical, I think it was more probable that he didn't win than possible he did. I think his value is maxed out right now, unless he went on to win something else of substance, and in order to maintain that value, he certainly can't afford to get beat where he would be a strong favorite. Winning a race like that doesn't add to value, but losing one can diminish value.
The hype I refer to is merely the fact that I think they have to build him up to command and fill a book at the $40k price range -- and personally, I think that's too high. I am not a pedigree expert or bloodstock agent, but I think $30k might be more like it -- speaking from a market perspective -- and I am not sure he fills a book at that level (legitimately I mean, LOL). At $30k, or $40k, personally, I want to breed to one hell of a horse (with everything else considered) -- and to me, he's just not "that" kind of horse.
I see your points and I think he'll be a nice their stallion somewhere, relatively speaking get some nice mares, etc. I just feel that value is maxed now -- more downside than up. I guess we'll never know, LOL.
Eric
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Eric
I am not saying that I like the horse as a racehorse or a stallion prospect. But compare him to horses with similar race records and pedigrees and you get Lion Heart and First Samurai. I'm not trying to argue that he is as good or bad as these horses but they have similar credentials and I believe LH is 25k and FS is 40. Both got very sizable books.
You can't take away his positives and I don't think there is anyone, breeders included who thought he was a super horse. But IF he were to have won a big race or 2 in the fall, his stud fee (since his value is immaterial being Coolmore owned) would have risen. And if he had lost a couple, it would still be where it will be.