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Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Eric
I disagree that his value is predicated on "hype" or "buzz". He won Grade 1 2 year old stakes and a Grade 1 Derby prep. He is by a "hot" stallion. His value is secure regardless of how many races he lost. He will probably stand for somewhere between $30-$40k. If he were to win the Travers and/or Haskell or a race like that, he would have been worth a lot more. Personally I never thought he was great but he did accomplish more than most stallions that will enter stud next year.
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Chuck, don't get me wrong -- the colt isn't a nobody. However, I just don't think he was that good of a colt. The talk about him being at or very near the head of the class, early on, seemed to be a bit of overhype to me. G1's without question cannot be dismissed.
Winning the Travers, to me is a huge "if" and although it may be rhetorical, I think it was more probable that he didn't win than possible he did. I think his value is maxed out right now, unless he went on to win something else of substance, and in order to maintain that value, he certainly can't afford to get beat where he would be a strong favorite. Winning a race like that doesn't add to value, but losing one can diminish value.
The hype I refer to is merely the fact that I think they have to build him up to command and fill a book at the $40k price range -- and personally, I think that's too high. I am not a pedigree expert or bloodstock agent, but I think $30k might be more like it -- speaking from a market perspective -- and I am not sure he fills a book at that level (legitimately I mean, LOL). At $30k, or $40k, personally, I want to breed to one hell of a horse (with everything else considered) -- and to me, he's just not "that" kind of horse.
I see your points and I think he'll be a nice their stallion somewhere, relatively speaking get some nice mares, etc. I just feel that value is maxed now -- more downside than up. I guess we'll never know, LOL.
Eric