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Originally Posted by miraja2
I have to disagree with you on a couple of fronts here.
1) I don't think Flashy Bull has improved "leaps and bounds" in recent weeks. Over two months ago he stalked some allowance horses and pounced on them on the turn to win and post a 105 Beyer Speed Figure. Then in the Foster he did the same thing........and posted another 105. In between those two races, he defeated the mighty Hesanoldsalt by a head while actually getting weight from Old Salty that day. He is a decent horse, but I just don't see any real improvement over the last two months.
2) Lava Man? He has a very good career in SoCal, but he has never been able to win outside of that place, and the fact that he lost his most recent start there MIGHT indicate that he is begining to slip a little.
3) Papi Chullo? No.
I agree with Danzig in that pointing to these three as the examples of why the handicap division is not a joke, isn't particularly convincing in my opinion.
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Flashy Bull couldn't find the winner's circle at all last year, so the mere fact he's strung a few wins together this year suggests he's improved. He's a typical mismanaged colt that was repeatedly run over his head while still holding allowance conditions last year. Had they let him develop properly last year, he might already have been a top horse in the division at the start of the season.
Papi Chullo is an even more extreme example of a mismanaged horse, perhaps one of the worst in history. As a maiden he finished second in the Sham, a gr 3 at Santa Anita over 9 furlongs. In that race, he finished ahead of future Derby winner Giacomo amongst other future stakes horses. Now that he's in much more sensible hands, maybe we'll get to see the full potential of a horse who was always meant to be a good one. Hopefully, at age 5, its not too late, and certainly his last two place him several lengths above second tier stakes horses like Hesanoldsalt and AP Arrow.
I think Lava Man is on the decline, too, but still, given his race record and Beyer figures, you have to consider him a real beast. Honestly, I think the Stud TNT horse is going to dethrone him Saturday, and will be a major player the rest of the year.