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Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann
While much of this analysis is dead on, I don't see how that makes Diamond Stripes ' the likeliest winner.' A possible winner, yes, if he is capable of stepping up a few notches and he may be, given how lightly raced he is. But likeliest? I've seen too many of this sort (Mayan King, anybody?) to fall into that trap.
In comparing Hesanoldsalt form, do please recall the 1-turn 9f vs. 2-turn 9f factor. Papi Chullo LOVES Belmont's 1-turn 8f+ config; he is 3/3 there. The fact that he beat Hesanoldsalt by many does not detract from 'oldsalt's TWO-turn form. The dynamics of the races are very different.
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Do you bet?
Hesanoldsalt had a very similar trip in both of his last two races and Papi Chullos's recent improvement has more to do with finally getting with a competent training outfit instead of having an owner act as a trainer than your unqualified one-turn/two-turn mumbo jumbo.