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Originally Posted by Danzig
no
but i don't see anyone in here that stands head and shoulders above the rest, and don't see a need in picking a fave. that would be kind of stating the obvious, wouldn't it? gee, i think master command will win...what's the point?
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It's about analyzing races....and saying longshots have won this race in the past somehow elevates the chances of longshots in today's race defies logic.
A reasonable analysis, for instance, of this race would be something like....
Diamond Stripes has shown enormous potential in all of his races, particularly in the Pegasus, when he overcame very real trouble to beat a decent field in a reasonably fast time. This is his first major test against proven horses but if one horse emerges out of this race to make a major impact in big races this year he appears to be the logical choice.
Master Command has certainly done nothing wrong this year but his record may be slightly deceiving. He had very soft trips, in soft pace races ( which won't be the case today ), against markedly softer competition. When faced with more severe pace scenerios, and more genuine horses, he has not performed particularly well in the past.
Magna Graduate took advantage of a very strong pace last time, in a race where the only real competition failed to come out of the gate, and is another who has not performed well, at least recently, under anything but the best of circumstances.
Wanderin Boy has clearly run a number of very fast races, and if allowed to make the lead, could be very dangerous even if setting a relatively fast pace. However, if denied the lead, which may well be the case if Mr. Umphrey stays in the race, he is unlikely to deliver his peak performance.
Flashy Bull, the only other actual contender in this race, has clearly improved, but was he game in holding off Hesanoldsalt or does Hesanoldsalt have trouble winning stretch duels? Certainly Flashy Bull was not flattered by the thrashing Papi Chullo gave Hesanoldsalt last week but it is also quite possible that under his new connections Papi Chullo may be a factor in major races later this year. This horse is a bit of a wildcard, in that he always had some potential, running credible races early in his career and now finally beginning to deliver, and he may have as more upside than most here, save perhaps Diamond Stripes.
These are the merits and possible drawbacks to the contenders in this race. I think Diamond Stripes is the likeliest winner, Wanderin Boy is dangerous if Mr. Umphrey scratches, and Flashy Bull may be possible, and is a use in multi-race bets if, like me, you do not like either Pletcher entrant.