The more times a horse runs, the more likely it is that a new "top" will be followed by a regression. This doesn't mean the horse bounced. It usually has a lot more to do with the circumstances of the races in question.
Curlin had raced five times. His last was his top, meaning four out of five races he had run below his top. That means there was probably an 80% chance he would again last Saturday. That is simplified of course, but this bounce thing is so overused it is ridiculous.
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