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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
What do you mean? Come-from-behinders with great late kicks get beat all the time when there is a slow pace. They often can't catch the front runners. The front runners don't necessarily need a huge lead either. If you have a good front runner and he has a 1-2 length lead at the top of the stretch and the pace is really slow, there is a good chance that the come-from-behinders will not be able to out-kick him.
If I'm riding Hard Spun and I can take the lead at the 3/8 pole or the quarter pole after running 6 furlongs in 1:16, I would think that I would be very hard to catch. Don't get me wrong, with a horse like HS, I'd rather have a 5 length lead in 1:14 than a 1-2 length lead in 1:16, but either way I would think that I would be hard to catch.
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It comes down to the individual horses.
Take a horse like Hard Spun for example. He isn't really a sprinter. His strength is his high cruising speed and his pedigree. He can breeze faster than this others and for most of the race. When asked to go slower for the whole race he doesn't benefit any positional advantage from his cruising speed, he doesn't really save that much more energy, and he doesn't have turn of foot to kick home fast.
Now a slow pace would on the other hand help a sprinter type. It would generally hurt a closer. When everyone is within a few lengths and no one has momentum, it is all about position and turn of foot.