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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
They showed the early betting on TVG. I don't know how significant the early odds are. For the Derby, it is fairly significant because the pool is very large even the day before. I have no idea how much money is in the pool right now for the Belmont, so the early odds may not be terribly significant.
Anyway, Rags to Riches was even-money in the early betting. Curlin was 2-1. Hard Spun was 7-1.
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I think we can safely assume that the final odds will bear little relation to those odds!
A better predictor is the future odds at TheGreek. (Pinnacle doesn't have straight future odds.) TheGreek's odds on Curlin have dropped from 6-5 to even money. Hard Spun has dropped from 4.05-1 to 3.85-1. Rags to Riches has risen from 3.05-1 to 3.45-1.
Interestingly, Bodog is offering the morning line odds on its futures. (Curlin is still 6-5 there). If you combine the best from Bodog and TheGreek, the takeout is just 11%.
fwiw, here's my guess at closing odds:
Imawild, 20
Tiago, 12
Curlin, 4-5
CP West, 15
Slew's Tizzy, 25
Hard Spun, 4
Rags to Riches, 4
--Dunbar