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Originally Posted by letswastemoney
Why are people so quick to dismiss the "wise guy" Kentucky Derby flop angle. It's a mile and a half race so anything can happen.
Tiago just reminds me of Birdstone. I think Birdstone also finished 7th in the Derby. Besides that, Tiago is lightly raced so who knows how good he could be?
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I am not going to say that Tiago has no chance at all, but Birdstone had a couple things going fo him that Tiago didn't.
1) Birdstone certainly had a 12f pedigree. Tiago's isn't bad but look at Birdstone's. His pedigree (horses like Hush Dear etc.) was perfect.
2) Birdstone had alread won a major stakes race over the Belmont surface.
3) Birdstone was, in my opinion, simply a better horse. I still believe he was an underrated animal on a dry surface. He ran on a wet surface in the Derby and one of his prep races (maybe the Florida Derby? I can't remember for sure) and he ran poorly. On a dry surface though he was pretty good.
Tiago hasn't raced that many times, so maybe he will still turn out to be a good one, but I wouldn't compare him to Birdstone quite yet.