BEL picks
Race 2 (TURF): #6 Seeking No More (3-1) scratched as an AE Saturday; hot Hushion (17-5-3-1) adds blinks, draws Prado (replacing Arroyo) off nice 3d in turf debut vs Back To Mandalay (see race 5). Not alot to beat in this NYbred contest; use with #5 Saturday's Cat (7-2) who's had many chances but always competitive vs state-breds and #1(POE) Brian's Cat Can Do (15-1) who makes third start of current form cycle for Contessa coming in off two decent rallying finishes on weeds.
Race 5 (TURF): #7 Back To Mandalay (4-1) broke through with nice turf score in 3d try last out over BEL sod (but first effort vs state-breds), winning with something left; Zito charge coming to hand and could be a good one; Zito enjoying fast BEL start (11-4-2-1). Wide open underneath, I'll look to use #4 Thunderestimate (7-2) off good mdn score with Prado, #10 Spurred (8-1) also coming in off nice mdn sod score in '07 debut and getting Castellano 1st time for Donk and #6 False I.D. (9-2) yet another trying winners first time, trained by Tagg; will also throw in #5 That'll Do (12-1) and Bellbottom Johnny (15-1) as bombs who both try turf first time today but each with pedigrees that suggest an affinity for the green.
Race 6: (Main): #8 Nerve (8-1) is my 1st LONGSHOT PLAY; looked awesome breaking mdn by 9 at Calder on 4/25; shipped up to NY thereafter and now under care of Contessa with 5f bullet in holster; class test today vs older but appears capable of springing upset from nice outside post draw in field packed with speed.
Race 7: (TURF): #5 Doctor Freud (8-1) is my 2d LONGSHOT PLAY who sheds blinks and goes for always dangerous Pletcher-Johnny V duo; stretches and tries turf first time today vs pretty deep, competitive field, but has nice grass pedigree (sire Freud pops 14% with firsters on lawn); as well regarded as Todd is, he's an underrated master of the surface switch, especially first time. #8 Pays to Dream (9-2) is 2-2 on grass and is main danger under Castellano; #10 Dormeletto (5-1) with Prado and #11 My Apology (10-1), a Dutrow trainee, should also be included in any exotics wagers.
Race 8: MET MILE (Main): #4 Sun King (5-1) is my tepid selection in very intriguing feature but I will need value to play him. Was 2d in this race last year, losing by head to Silver Train; troubled '07 debut in G3 Westchester prep but that race, along with peppy 46.4 work on May 21, should set him up well for a top effort today; likely to sit behind the speed (and there's alot of it) and look to kick it in gear down the lane to swallow up what I hope will be tiring speed; worth noting he's the closest to knocking off World Champ Invasor, losing a nose bob last August in the Whitney at the Spa. The one to beat is Pletcher's #2 Lawyer Ron (5-2) who is fluorishing under Todd's care but likely to be overbet and still has yet to beat the caliber of horses he's facing today. Perhaps Pletcher gets him over the top today. Gotta use in any exotics under Prado. May also throw #9 Silent Name (JPN)(8-1) into the mix given he is a natural miler who comes in off smashing G2 score at KEE; question mark is fact that he tries dirt first time (20 starts); if his form translates, he could be a handful late under Corey Nakatani who flies in from Cali to ride.
Race 9: (TURF): #3 Perfect Bullet (5-2) moves into the Bobby Frankel barn after bang-up length and nose losses this spring at GP; freshened, with solid, steady work tab; looks ready to rumble today with Castellano in irons but BE WARY of short price. #2 Hyracotherium (9-2) is main foe from that Todd-JR tandem; made visually impressive 6wide move in mdn voyage going 5f on lawn vs good looking English Colony (Penna) on 3/28 at GP; freshened up for the stretch out; would be no surprise. Others rating an exotics look are #1POE Virginia Minstrel (6-1) from Barclay Tagg, firster #5 War Monger (8-1) from dangerous Bill Mott who can pop with a debuter and #7 Montauk (12-1) who shed blinks for turf debut for Jimmy Jerkens (6-24 1st turf).
***For any late Pick 4/Pick 3 considerations...in Race 10 I will use #4 Truth or Dare (3-1) and #11 Kal El (7-2).
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