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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I obviously like his chances of winning the Belmont a lot more than I like his chances of winning the BC Classic.
With the addition of a Breeders Cup Dirt Mile---which will be run as a two-turn, one mile and seventy yard race---it seems likely that a lot of horses considered "pace factors" only, who entered the Classic in years past---may opt for the "Dirt Mile" instead.
A slow pace is something that is not to Street Sense's advantage.
People want to credit Street Sense's explosive turn-of-foot and his excellent manuverability...as the sole reasons he's got all these great trips....however, like all deep closers, he has no control on how fast the pace will be in front of him. The BC Classic is too far in advance to say for sure---but, logic would seem to suggest it might be a moderately paced race this year, and at Monmouth Park....deep closers in slow paced races often perform well below their best form.
I guess if Nafzger skips the Belmont--and is really focusing on the Breeders Cup Classic...he might try something like running him back in the Haskell (and getting a race over the track where the BC will be run)
From the Haskell, he could either go Travers-Jockey Club Gold Cup, or Travers and train up to the BC Classic.
Nafzger has a lot of viable options---and he seems like a guy who will do best by the horse. I think that much we can count on.
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Teuflesburg is certainly pointing to the Classic, so there should be pace aplenty. I see no other logical race for him unil the Classic.
Regardless of the dirt mile, there will still be connections who cannot pass up $5 million over $1 million, so those frontrunners should still get entered anyway -- a few of them at least, imo.