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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I love these pedigree geniuses....PA is like our very own Lauren Stich.
Curlin is by Met Mile winner Smart Strike- A sire who's offspring, in dirt races, are often most effective at middle distances.
Curlin's dam is named Sherriff's Deputy. She was unraced. She had FIVE siblings run in route races...NONE of them won. A combined 0-for-28 in route races. One of them did win 8 races in Italy, but according to BRIS, the average winning distance of those 8 races was 4.97 furlongs.
Now, Sherriff's Deputy has had two winning foals prior to Curlin. Her first foal is named Deputy. She's 4-for-20, and the average winning distance of her 4 races is 5.38 furlongs. The second foal is named Secret Wedge, he's won three times, the average winning distance of his three races is 6.33 furlongs.
I realize there are stamina influences in the go-back of the pedigree...but you just made it seem like I was a fool for calling that a milers pedigree.
There is a reason why pedigree analysis is so widely looked down on my by many "high profile" handicappers....and I believe it has to do with the hackery that is often associated with "high profile" pedigree experts.
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Drugs nothing wrong with your analysis but keep in mind the AWD statistic is quickly becoming a relic as the average race distance carded has dropped significantly as well. Don't have a number but I recall it to be in the 6.7 range.