I do feel that for the most part Hard Spun will do his best work in the 8.5f-9f range. While he certainly has a dam-side pedigree that indicates 10f or longer, he does not seem able to relax very well down the backside.
What the horse does do well is get up to full speed quickly, and then maintain that speed for far longer than most horses with his early acceleration.
I can see why some may like his chances here, because he has that dam-side pedigree, and there shouldn't be a lot of competition on the front end, and who knows, the way he faded at Pimlico may mean he is the right price in this race.
On the whole though, I don't like his chances, because even though the race may set up for him to potentially get the half in :48 & change, I highly doubt he will actually do that unless Mario decides to do his best Jose Santos impression and strangle the horse back. I think he'll burn himself out.....but I am glad they are taking a shot with him here. We really don't need another Belmont like last year's edition.
|