[ateamstupid]

Leg D (Race 12): The Preakness Stakes, 1 3/16 Miles, Grade I, $1,000,000, 3 (6:09 p.m. EST)

1 - Mint Slewlep (Bob Bailes / Alan Garcia) 30-1
Son of Slew City Slew scored at odds-on at LRL two back, but failed to make much of a dent in the G3 Withers last out. Last local work was very quick, but this bay would need vast improvement off his previous races to make a difference in this and that just doesn't seem likely.

2 - Xchanger (Mark Shuman / Ramon Dominguez) 15-1
Exchange Rate gray ran a big fifth in the $250,000 Southwest at OP, beaten only a length by Derby runner-up Hard Spun despite legitimate traffic trouble. He was foolishly sent up on a quick pace in the G3 Rebel and paid the price late, beaten 12 1/2 at the wire, and he bounced back in a big way in the $100,000 Frederico Tesio, blowing away five rivals, being taken in hand late. Blew out a really quick five furlongs at FAI last out and appears to be coming into this ready for a top effort. He's got to improve a significant amount to be a win candidate in this one, but he'll probably carve out a good trip and is an exacta threat at a price.

3 - Circular Quay (Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez) 8-1
Tabor closer really wasn't all that far up the track in the Derby, running sixth despite trouble and perhaps a bit of a premature move at the 3/4 pole. He'll probably get some decent fractions to close into today, but it's still a legitimate question whether or not he's better areound one turn. He ran a big one two back in the G2 LA Derby, but that's about the only race he hasn't found some trouble for himself in. Mixed feelings.

4 - Curlin (Steve Asmussen / Robby Albarado) 7-2
Lightly-raced chestnut didn't quite run his usual race in the Derby, but he certainly didn't disgrace himself, finding himself far back early, getting a lot of dirt in his face, but kicking into gear late to pass tired horses and pick up third while not threatening the top two finishers. He's got to face those two again today, but this is a smaller field and the son of Smart Strike will probably receive a more comfortable trip. Contender.

5 - King of the Roxy (Todd Pletcher / Garret Gomez) 12-1
Second string of Pletcher ran a huge race to win the G2 Hutcheson off a layoff after breaking slowly and running four wide on the turn, then made the lead late in the G1 SA Derby, but wilted to be second late. He's going to have to prove that he's as effective around two turns as he is around one, but if he does so, he'll make some noise at a price.

6 - Flying First Class (Wayne Lukas / Mark Guidry) 20-1
CA-bred colt ran a monstrous race to begin his three-year-old season, winning an OP sprint by 8 and earning a 107 BSF and -2 TG in the process, but he hasn't lived up to that race since. He faded badly when unable to get the lead in the Rebel, then did the same in the G2 AR Derby. He progressed, however, in his last race, stalking a quick pace in the $117,000 Derby Trial and drawing off to win by 3 3/4. That was one turn, though, and he's another that's yet to prove himself routing. He'll probably get to the front today, but will have plenty of pressure on either side. Can't envision a scenario where he doesn't cave late.

7 - Hard Spun (Larry Jones / Mario Pino) 5-2
Derby pacesetter held on stubbornly after setting some decent fractions and bobbling at the 1/8 pole when Street Sense cut in front of him. Best part about this bay son of Danzig is that he doesn't have to lead, he can sit right off the clip set by Flying First Class and make his move at the top of the lane. Thing is, he's done nothing but move forward in every race, and somewhere that's got to end. Didn't like how wobbly he looked in the stretch of the Derby, either and he might get caught wide around the turns today. Obvious contender, but an underlay at his ML odds.

8 - Street Sense (Carl Nafzger / Calvin Borel) 7-5
Derby winner is clearly very talented, but has some significant knocks against him as he tries to take the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. For one, he's enjoyed perfect trip after perfect trip in his wins, and draws outside today with everyone else knowing what Borel wants to do. Secondly, Nafzger has admitted all along that he's been focusing on nothing but the Derby with this colt, and the Preakness has been an afterthought in his training regimen. Borel also isn't great when he's not allowed to sneak up the rail. With all of that said, he's got a mighty strong kick for a dirt horse, he's proven that he can get the distance and his work on Tuesday was plenty impressive. Bettor side doesn't like him, fan side is pulling for him. Must use either way.

9 - C P West (Nick Zito / Edgar Prado) 20-1
Pretty disappointed in his two races as a three-year-old, considering how much potential he showed at two. He missed by a nose at odds-on in a GP sprint, then ran second as the chalk in the Withers. His top BSF of 92 and TG of 5 leaves plenty to be desired. Outsider.

(4) Curlin - Chance to return to dazzling AR form FIRST
(8) Street Sense - Would love to see him win as a fan SECOND
(2) Xchanger - Should get solid trip and would love some moisture EIGHTH
(7) Hard Spun - Seems most likely to regress off Derby THIRD

$2 EXACTA - $23.20
$2 TRIFECTA - $50.00

Pick 4 ticket:

6 / 3,9,12 / 7 / 2,4,7,8