[ateamstupid]

Leg C (Race 11): The William Donald Schaefer Handicap, 1 1/8 Miles, Grade III, $100,000, 3+ (Post Time: 5:10 p.m. EST)

1 - Ryan's for Real (John Alecci / Ramon Dominguez) 8-1
Sword Dance gelding ran an utterly monstrous race two back in an optional claimer win in the LRL slop, earning a 105 BSF and a huge TG of -3 3/4. Last out, he probably regressed and didn't care for the polytrack, as he barely lifted a foot in the G2 Commonwealth BC at KEE. Note that the big race two back wasn't his only huge effort this year, as he blew away another optional claimer field on Jan. 27 (96 BSF, -2 1/4 TG), then ran third at 9-1 in the G2 General George BC (103 BSF, 1 1/2 TG). The main concern is that he's questionable beyond a mile and he'll probably be close to a quick pace after breaking from the rail. Gets his two-turn acid test today, and could be dangerous at a price if not suckered into a speed duel.

2 - Two Sixty Four (Tim Keefe / Ryan Fogelsonger) 20-1
Local shot looked to be turning into a useful router towards the end of '05, but then came complications that forced him to be laid off for over 13 months. It took him a while to return to form, but he did so in his last race, running second at 10-1 in a sloppy sprint at LRL. Took him a while to get back to work in the morning, but when he did, he blew out :58 and change at LRL. Thing is, he's probably going to be close to a quick pace today, and considering his fragile history, not sure of the chances he runs back to his last, let alone improves off it enough to matter in here.

3 - Take the Bluff (Rick Violette / Garret Gomez) 10-1
Chestnut son of Pine Bluff ran only 3/4 of a length behind today's favorite, Hesanoldsalt last summer, but hasn't quite moved forward like that one has since. This five-year-old is another who likely will be up on a fast pace early on, and he's gotta improve significantly off his last two to be a win candidate. Can't see him not getting weary late.

4 - Urban Conquest (Peter Bazeos / Horacio Karamanos) 30-1
Just three races removed from claiming company, this five-year-old gelding jumps into G3 company despite having a high BSF of 84 and high TG of 3 1/4. Would like him a little bit if his figures were a little stronger, because he's one of few who can take advantage of quick fractions. Seems too slow.

5 - Smelling Salts (Laura Dennis / TBD) 20-1
SCRATCHED

6 - Belongs to Joe (Mike Gorham / Joe Rocco) 15-1
Belong to Me bay ran huge at DEL last out, sitting off some hot fractions and closing late to score an optional claimer win, earning a BSF of 96 and TG of 1 1/2 in finishing the mile-and-70 in a blazing 1:39 3/5. The performance looks doubly impressive when it's taken into consideration that he won over a speed-favoring track that day. As great as all that it, with 24 races under his belt at four, it doesn't seem reasonable to expect the big progression today it would take to win this. Nevertheless, he could get the first run on the closers and at least hit the board at a big number.

7 - Hesanoldsalt (Nick Zito / Edgar Prado) 1-1
Think the morning line is nuts on this Live Oak runner, although he does look mighty threatening. Dark bay or brown colt was a useful runner last summer and fall, but really picked up his game late in the year, winning a very fast G3 Fred Hooper in the CRC slop, then crossing the wire first in a high priced optional claimer at GP before being DQ'ed to second. His big race came Feb. 3, when he was a closing second at 16-1 behind '06 HOY Invasor in the G1 Donn. His subsequent effort, a narrow second in the G2 GP was a little disappointing, but he's been given time to recuperate after a long racing schedule since. Not in love with the way he's been shipped around, first from CD to BEL and now to PIM, and he missed a work at the end of April, but he's one of the few contenders in here who's proven an ability to drop back and make one run. Obviously obvious.

8 - Sunriver (Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez) 5-1
Never been a fan of this full brother to Ashado, as he's never really done anything to merit the hype laid on him mainly because of his connections and blood. He ran some solid races last spring, but was far up the track behind Bernardini in the G2 Jim Dandy, then ran a very mediocre third in his return at AQU. Understand that it was just a prep, but he was pretty much a total no-show, and he's going to have to jump up about 20 points on the BSF scale and 8 points on the TG scale to be a winner in here. Main asset is that he doesn't need to be near the lead, but still not loving his chances to take home the big prize.

9 - Flashy Bull (Kiaran McLaughlin / Alan Garcia) 7-2
West Point gray was 1-for-14 in his career before his last two, winning an N1X at GP and scoring by 4 in an optional claimer at BEL. He earned big numbers for that last effort, but to be honest, he hasn't really proven yet to be a force beyond a mile. The outside draw isn't ideal, as Garcia will have to do a lot of maneuvering to get him into a good spot early on, and at the relatively short price, going to make him prove that he's a legitimate two-turn animal.

(7) Hesanoldsalt - Race appears to set up for him at short ML odds SECOND
(1) Ryan's for Real - Win two back is too quick to ignore THIRD
(6) Belongs to Joe - Scored in wicked fast time on speed-favoring DEL strip FIFTH
(9) Flashy Bull - Questionable thus far at distance FIRST

$2 EXACTA - $20.40
$2 TRIFECTA - $79.40