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Originally Posted by Scav
I'll answer for him. Yes.
Younger the horse the more likely that he will bounce. I think you really have to look at the situation and who is doing the entering. If a horse has been running between the 3-5 range and then alll of a sudden jumps to a 0, and then comes back in 14-20 days into a stakes race where others were pointing, and progressing well and you predict them to run a 2, I would bet the horse that I am predicting to run the two, and not the horse that just ran a zero.
The only two rules that I really live by when it comes to TG is the 3year old year to 4 year old year. If you think the horse has some talent, and is coming off the layoff, they improve immensely when they get that 60-90 day layoff in the winter from 3-4 years old. ESPECIALLY horses that looked rushed to the races or ones that have a stretch out pedigree's. Unbridled's horses were unbelievable when going from 3-4 and 4-5, they just got better with age. If a newly turned 4 year old matchs his top first out, he is an AUTOMATIC play for me next out unless it is a long layoff. AUTOMATIC. If they don't I then look at it more, but the 3 year old to 4 year old angle is EXTREMELY strong, and for good reason.
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I strongly disagree. If a horse runs a big race, he will be way less likely to repeat that race if he comes back too soon. You think a horse is more likely to repeat a big effort if he's brought back in 2 weeks? If that were the case, then horses would just keep running every two weeks. Horses would be running 26 times a year.
Any good trainer will tell you that if a horse runs a big race, the horse will be more likely to repeat that effort if he is given plenty of time(at least 4 weeks). All the best trainers will tell you that. They've all learned it through experience. I learned it very quickly through handicapping. It was one of the first things that I noticed back in the mid-1980s when I first started going to the track. I noticed that really good horses would often times regress badly if they came back too soon.