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Originally Posted by King Glorious
And if Curlin runs his race again here, I don't think FFC can beat him. But there is a chance he doesn't run his race. I feel very strongly that this is the wrong place to be running hm. I feel about him like I did about Lion Heart coming back in the Preakness. Not worth it. I do think he can win and he's my pick to win but long term, I don't think it's worth it.
The thing is that even though Storm in May and Deadly Dealer were ahead of him in Arkansas doesn't mean I think they are better horses. Many factors can play into why a race order of finish comes in the way that it does without it meaning that the order determines the actual rank of the horses. Again, I personally thought that FFC was the second best horse in the race in Arkansas. What Storm in May did in the Derby has nothing to do with the Preakness and FFC. At least not that I see.
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FCC has run two routes this year, both times he finished up the track against Curlin and relatively weak fields. In his two routes he has faced 18 horses and managed to beat a grand total of 4 horses. That you are able to run multiple scenarios and find him hitting the tri fifty percent of the time in this race is simply amazing to me. To me he is the most unlikely horse in the field to be in the tri.