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Originally Posted by slotdirt
I think it's kind of funny that King Glorious says in one post that Flying First Class has a 50 percent shot of getting in the tri, then in the next post ranks him fifth among the Preakness contenders. I'm no mathmetician, but I don't think that adds up very well.
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How about this then. Let's see if this will help a little. In one scenario, I see it as:
1. Curlin
2. Circular Quay
3. Hard Spun
4. Street Sense
5. FFC
In another, I see it as:
1. Street Sense......he's as good as advertised
2. Hard Spun......puts away the cheap speed and hangs on for second
3. FFC.....charges up like in the Ark Derby but hangs again...still gets third
4. Curlin.......the Derby/Preakness combo was just too much in a short period
5. Circular Quay....closing sprinter that really doesn't want more than 9f
So let's see here. That's two scenarios. FFC is in the tri in one and not in the other. Give me a second to break out my calculator. Let's see now. One out of two. I'm not a math major either so I could be wrong here but 1/2 keeps coming out to 50%. I could do a few more scenarios and come up with more combinations. I come up with FFC in the top three in about half of them. Or maybe 40-45%. Would that be better for u?
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