He was impressive today, you're right. He has been a horse i've been wanting to take on for the Derby, and after today, he is STILL a horse i want to take on. How anyone can back him at 6/4 for the Derby i will never know. Even if he goes and wins, how can you back a horse at 6/4 for a classic???
As you mentioned, he is yet to encounter fast ground and (if they don't over water at Epsom) i would imagine it to be good to firm........ unless they go the Motivator route bt saying, well he's the favourite, so we will call it good to firm, but in reality we have got the ground riding the slow side of good........ can you tell that really annoyed me? And i think this may happen again. Just wait for it........ 'official' going "good to firm" jockeys reports "slow" times - a few seconds slower than average.
Also, so far he has ran at Newbury twice and York once, probably two of the flattest tracks in the country......... he is yet to even see Epsom, and for some horses i think the look of it is too much. You are betting 6/4 about whether this horse will handle Epsom basically, would you back a horse at 6/4 which you weren't sure would win? I wouldn't.
He won the dante well, lets not beat around the bush, but what did he beat? Adagio looked a colt going places after the Craven, but what happened in the Guineas....... and today he ran far too keenly for his own good. and although Proponent and Raincoat looked like nice horses they still hadn't got the form in the book. It wasn't the greatest of races on the face of it. They didn't go a great pace either, which might just have suited the winner, even though he looks a stout stayer, i thought they might try and do him for toe early. He raced keenly enough in the early stages and remember, the first 5-6 furlongs of the Derby trip are uphill, he can't do that at Epsom and get away with it.
He isn't the Derby winner for me, but at the sametime i wouldn't be shocked if he did win (does that make sense?).
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