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Originally Posted by justindew
Calling it a "trend" probably isn't the best word. It's just something I have noticed over the last 12 years or so. I think Hard Spun ran "his race" in the Derby, and is now a threat to regress. Would I bet my life on it? Of course not. But there is a greater risk that Hard Spun will regress than there is that Street Sense will. So as a bettor, I'll choose Street Sense and try to find value with Circular Quay and CP West.
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I don't like even the idea of " trends " as I think each case is different. For example, Lion Heart, who I absolutely hated in the Preakness ( to be honest I was hardly Smarmy Jones's biggest supporter either ). I felt Lion Heart's effort in the Derby was completely a result of the sloppy track, as he was on empty at the top of the stretch and the track carried him home. I assumed he would be burned up trying to deal with Smarty Jones and regardless of the final result he would be spent. To me he was essentially a miler who went further do to racetrack bias and conditions.
To me, Hard Spun is simply a horse that has run well every time he has hit the racetrack, and I don't see why that shouldn't be the case Saturday.