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Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
That was a nice read.
In my Derby scenario I pictured Street Sense saving ground early, and then passing whoever had the lead in the stretch- (have to be either Hard Spun or Curlin) while on the outside.
I didn't think he would go for the rail, but that is how it happened.
I don't have as clear a picture of the exact type of race that will win the Preakness. I again think that Street Sense will be coming on the outside with his bid.
I am less worried about the trip than I am Hard Spun and Curlin. Street Sense's style means that having to check would cost him the race. Yet he is full of steam and moving late when others are tiring so he shouldn't have to check.
I think he only hangs here if Borel moves him too early or if he gets a terrible trip.
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I think being 19th out of a 20 horse field in the Derby was not a wise move by Calvin, although I can't deny it worked out for him. Run that race 100 times though, with him in that same spot, and I think he only wins about 10% of the time if he's lucky. More times than not, he would have to lose momentum at some point trying to pass 18 horses. If things played out the way they normally would have, we'd be talking about how Hard Spun won the Derby, and SS backers would be playing him as the 2nd choice in the Preakness on the 'troubled trip' angle.