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Originally Posted by ateamstupid
It makes you cringe that I think Street Sense and Hard Spun won't be able to produce the same effort twice in two weeks? Sorry for thinking that these are animals and not robots..
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ateam, let's make a hypo bet. You pick some race in the future for Street Sense and Hard Spun in which you think they will be less likely to "bounce". How about the first race they run after the Belmont? (whether or not they run in the Belmont, they should be well-rested in whatever race they run after the Belmont.) I'll take each horse's Preakness performance. You give me odds of 6-5, since you think they will bounce in the Preakness, and I think it's a coin flip whether they will run better or worse in the Preakness than in any given future race. If you'd rather have the next race after the Preakness, even if it's the Belmont, that's fine, too. I'm willing to take the Preakness performances over any random future race. (We could even leave the picking of the future race open, with the stipulation that it has to be in 2007! Of course, I'm liable to be obnoxiously reminding you to pick your race every time one of them is entered!)
So-called "bounce" is always much easier to "see" after the fact, as in "he bounced". If you believe a horse will bounce, you will sooner or later be correct, in the sense that sooner or later the horse will toss in a sub-par performance for some reason.
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Originally Posted by ateamstupid
He really has never run any "bad" races, but he's only run two great races. The rest were good, but there are plenty of horses in this race who can run "good" races.
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I agree with this completely. He is a deserving favorite in the Preakness, but hardly a lock. I have him between 2-1 and 5-2 in my line. He will of course go off lower than that.
--Dunbar