[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Charismatic1

Horses that closed well in the Derby without winning like Victory Gallop and Menifee and Afleet Alex don't bug me with their ability or inability to duplicate a good effort in the Preakness. I usually think they will. However, a misguided approach to closers in the Preakness is that a "smaller field + adequate pace = less traffic = he'll be able to make the clean run he couldn't make in the Derby". My belief is that if he couldn't close the deal in the Derby scenario, he won't be able to in the Preakness. My only * is in the case of a mistimed ride in the Derby like Rose on Afleet Alex (Point Given could also fit here). Also, I generally have the opinion that a deep closing Derby winner cannot wheel back and win the Preakness. Perhaps I'm wrong, but at the top of my head I do not believe any of the Triple Crown Wannabes since The Bid used a deep closing style to win BOTH races. At this time, I'm not sure why, but I've seen both explosive Derby closers (Monarchos) and grinding Derby closers (Giacomo) run flat in Baltimore. Oddly, I still like Street Sense's chances on Saturday, but that's probably because his agility and gears remind me a bit of Afleet Alex. Can nostalgia be a new *?

In most years, I would totally agree about Hard Spun. His performance in the Derby would definitely lump him with Lion Heart, Peace Rules, and Congaree in recent years. All ran HUGE races near or on a fast pace and held on real strong. Like Justin said, they were all bet hard in the Preakness and didn't run to their odds. However, I totally disagree with the way those horses were trained in between races. Their trainers would gallop them no further than 10 furlongs on any given day and they would breeze 5 poles in a minute flat the Monday or Tuesday before the Preakness. It doesn't seem like much, but I think it is unnecessary and that doing too much in one area and too little in another actually puts "edge" on the horse - and they proved that. Larry Jones is not breezing Hard Spun at all, and the horse is having really strong gallops of usually 12 furlongs or a little more everyday. John Servis and Tim Ritchey did this a couple years ago, and those performances were just a wee bit good. Also, this method will take edge off Hard Spun, so I think we can expect to see him stalking in the Preakness rather than on the lead (unless he's draws inside). I expect him to run big, but I can always say "I should've known" if he pulls a Peace Rules type race.

So, my theme for this year's Preakness is all about asterisks.

Good analysis, I agree with your general comments. I didn't know what training method Larry Jones was using to prep Hard Spun for the Preakness, but the approach you've outlined, with the long gallops makes sense to me. If Street Sense doesn't get his usual rail run, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Hard Spun take it.