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Originally Posted by philcski
3) Over the years? What, the last 4? I just gave you two examples debunking said "trend" from the last decade!
All I'm saying is you're costing yourself value if your true opinion is what you stated and you stick to just a win bet.
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Here are examples of horses since 1996, off the top of my head, that did not run to their odds in the Preakness, where their odds were based on their Derby efforts:
Prince of Thieves
Cavonnier (injured in the Preakness)
Victory Gallop (Ran well, but didn't win)
Menifee (Ran well, but didn't win)
Medaglia D' Oro
Peace Rules
Imperialism
Lion Heart
Closing Argument
It does not happen every year, but ALMOST every year, a horse who runs a terrific race in the Derby gets heavily bet in the Preakness, and comes up short. That's all I'm saying. I think Hard Spun will be added to that list this year.