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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
In order to win....he's going to need some help from Flying First Class and Kingoftheroxy denying Hard Spun his preferred front running-tactic...if he can lay two and a half or three lengths off of that trio---and have a four to six length seperation on Street Sense....he will be VERY tough to beat in my opinion.
To me, he's a 3/5 or 4/5 shot if that exact trip plays out...and it could. If that trip doesn't play out for him...you're right, he's no value at 4/1, and might not even offer that much value at 6/1.
For me, it boils down to what the likelyhood of him getting that trip is. I actually think it's a lot better than the likelyhood of Street Sense getting the trip he got in the Derby....and Street Sense was just about a 2/5 or 1/2 shot in the Derby, if allowed his preferred dream rail run with the aid of a pace setup.
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Interesting thread...personally, I would hate to see any horse work fast between the Derby and the Preakness...and Curlin, with his lack of seasoning and the fact this will be his 5th race since 2/3/07, certainly wouldn't benefit from same imo. Curlin seems to do 6f in about 1:13 in his routes, I don't see him close to a swift pace. With SS's gears, he can afford to give Curlin first run I think. To me, only Hard Spun has the potential to stop SS and that depends on whether he can maintain his form off a two week rest.