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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
In order to win....he's going to need some help from Flying First Class and Kingoftheroxy denying Hard Spun his preferred front running-tactic...if he can lay two and a half or three lengths off of that trio---and have a four to six length seperation on Street Sense....he will be VERY tough to beat in my opinion.
To me, he's a 3/5 or 4/5 shot if that exact trip plays out...and it could. If that trip doesn't play out for him...you're right, he's no value at 4/1, and might not even offer that much value at 6/1.
For me, it boils down to what the likelyhood of him getting that trip is. I actually think it's a lot better than the likelyhood of Street Sense getting the trip he got in the Derby....and Street Sense was just about a 2/5 or 1/2 shot in the Derby, if allowed his preferred dream rail run with the aid of a pace setup.
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I see math wasn't one of your stronger subjects.
Nothing like a horseplayer with an initially bad opinion allowing it to spiral into a plethora of even worse opinions. Seriously, you will find yourself with more time, and more money, if you would just admit you were wrong about Street Sense and try to focus on actually making money at the racetrack.
To be perfectly honest you are acting like a now banned member from this site who has also never acknowledged the many times he was wrong ( while also pretending he objectively analyzes races ).