In order to win....he's going to need some help from Flying First Class and Kingoftheroxy denying Hard Spun his preferred front running-tactic...if he can lay two and a half or three lengths off of that trio---and have a four to six length seperation on Street Sense....he will be VERY tough to beat in my opinion.
To me, he's a 3/5 or 4/5 shot if that exact trip plays out...and it could. If that trip doesn't play out for him...you're right, he's no value at 4/1, and might not even offer that much value at 6/1.
For me, it boils down to what the likelyhood of him getting that trip is. I actually think it's a lot better than the likelyhood of Street Sense getting the trip he got in the Derby....and Street Sense was just about a 2/5 or 1/2 shot in the Derby, if allowed his preferred dream rail run with the aid of a pace setup.
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