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Originally Posted by ArlJim78
The Preakness is normally the first time almost any three year old comes back on only two weeks rest, so to say that these have never come back before on only two weeks rest doesn't mean much to me. It was the same for other Kentucky derby winners who have done well in the Preakness as you have mentioned.
Why did you not expect Barbaro, Giacomo or Smarty Jones to bounce, but you are expecting Street Sense and Hard Spun to do so? What is it about their individual situations that makes it so clear in your mind?
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For what it's worth, if any of those were bounce candidates (depending on the extent to which you believe in it...), it was Giacomo.
Barbaro ran a career top in the Derby, Smarty Jones had been consistently fast going into it, but Giacomo ran his best TG fig by
far -- improving his best ever performance by 4.5 points, which if I'm not mistaken correlates to roughly ten lengths better than any of his previous performances which were in and of themselves sort of sneakily better than they looked.
I know that numbers aren't everything by any stretch, but if we believed that Giacomo shouldn't bounce but Street Sense should, something doesn't add up.