[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Richi,

Surprised to hear the above from you. And totally surprised that so many are taking this 'Churchill specialist' view of the Derby winner...

His record:

Four wins on three different tracks (CD; TBD; AP);

2nd a nose in the BG, 3rd by 1.75L to Great Hunter/Circular Quay in Breeders' Futurity on Poly at KEE where both times he gawked at the grandstand off the turn;

Second by 4L in his 6f career debut from the 9 hole while wide throughout and 3rd in the slop by 1.75L in the AP-WAS Futurity from the 9 hole while wide...

Importantly, unlike 'modern' trainers, Nafzger doesn't care about winning every start.. He brought this colt along with the intention of winning 2 races: The BC Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby. How'd that work out? Nafzger had this horse ready to fire best shots wherever these races were going to be run. It is incidental that the BC was at Churchill last year. He would have won the Juvenile wherever it was run. Getting horses' ready for a supreme effort is what he has always done best. But it's also a negative as I'll address below.

Use Unbridled as the model for this discussion both positive and negative. Was the 1990 Breeders' Cup at Churchill? No.. It was at Belmont and that didn't seem to bother Unbridled who had won the Derby easily by 3+ lengths. On the way to the Derby he had been beaten by Shot Gun Scott, twice; Smelly; Summer Squall; Land Rush, and several others in the Blue Grass, Tropical Park Derby, In Reality and Canterbury Juvenile, among others.

(And Unshaded was pointed for the Travers when Nafzger missed the Derby with him saying, "Well, we'll just have to go to New York and paint that canoe.")

It's not a question of Street Sense just being better at Churchill than anywhere else. What is worrisome is the fact that Nafzger really doesn't think about what is upcoming post-Derby. Unbridled was beaten 4L in the Preakness by Summer Squall, and really was empty by the time they reached Belmont. If Street Sense gets beat at Baltimore, it will be because as Nafzger admits, he really had no plan for him beyond the first Saturday in May and his tank may have been emptied in the Derby. As he says, he got him ready for Derby, and now "It's up to the horse."

I agree with most of what you are saying. My main concern is not the track surface. My main concern is the same concern that you and Ateam expressed which is basically that SS may have emptied his tank in the Derby. But in addition to that, he may not be as effective at other tracks as he is at Churchill. I'm not saying that he hasn't run plenty of good race at other tracks. I'm just saying that his freakish performances have been at Churchill. I don't know for sure that he moves up at Churchill. It could just be a matter of Nafzger having him ready for peak permances on those days. It's hard to tell. But there is at least a possibility that the horse moves up by a few lengths at Churchill.