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Originally Posted by miraja2
I never suggested that "today's horses should be able to do the same" as Citation did in 1948. If Curlin's connections decided to run him in all three TC races AND another 10f race in between the Preakness and the Belmont like they did with Citation.....I would criticize them. The point was just that a "taxing" spring campaign does not eliminate a good horse's chances from having a good late summer/fall campaign. The idea of what constitutes a taxing campaign have certainly changed over the years, but nobody would dispute that....so I don't really know who you think you are arguing with.
You say you would rather see the horse regroup for a races like the Haskell and the Travers as if running him in the Preakness will ruin his chances in those races. Those races are literally MONTHS away and this horse has only raced 4 times in his life.
Is the breed more fragile than it was decades ago? Yes, but the animals are not THAT much different that running in the Derby and the Preakness will automatically ruin the rest of their careers.
Will Curlin win the Preakness.....who knows, but if he is close to 100% he definitely has a shot, and if the trainer feels he is close to 100%, then not running him would just be stupid.
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We agree to an extent. We both feel like a horse should be able to handle a testing spring and still be around for the summer and fall. But are we living in a fantasy world? How many of them actually DO this? There can be many reasons, some physical, some economic, for why horses aren't campaigned the same way anymore. But let's just look at simple facts. The FACTS say that, since this decade began:
2000-Fusaichi Pegasus, Red Bullet, Commendable
2001-Monarchos, Point Given
2002-War Emblem, Sarava
2003-Funny Cide, Empire Maker
2004-Smarty Jones, Birdstone
2005-Giacomo, Afleet Alex
2006-Barbaro, Bernardini, Jazil
That's 16 horses that have won a TC race. Out of those 16, the majority DID NOT finish their 3yo season. It's not something I'm making up.
Fusaichi Pegasus (Jerome-II)
Point Given (Haskell-I, Travers-I)
War Emblem (Haskell-I)
Birdstone (Travers-I)
Bernardini (Jim Dandy-II, Travers-I, JCGC-I)
That's only five of the 16 that have gone on to win a graded stakes race after the TC.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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